Projecting Visibility Changes-PPT课件

cted Visibility Changes andSignificance Calculations using the WRAP CMAQ Modeling ResultsWRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC) University of California at Riverside, CE-CERT ENVIRON International CorporationPresents:/slides/ralph/RPO Modeling apr2302.pptcting Visibility Changes? Key to Regional Haze Rule (RHR) ? Must show visibility progress in Section 308 SIPs that meet targets ? Need to project visibility improvements in Section 309 SIPs (no specific targets)? EPA Draft Guidance uses models in a relative sense to estimate changes in visibility from 2019 to 2018 for Section 308 SIPsPresents:/slides/ralph/RPO Modeling apr2302.pptVisibility Significance Calculation? Regional Haze Rule (RHR) Section 309Requirements:– Determine whether emissions from Mobile Sourcesor Road Dust contribute “significantly” to visibility impairment at any of the 16 Class I areas on the Colorado Plateau – If either Mobile Sources or Road Dust are found to contribute “significantly”, then:? Mobile Sources: emissions budgets and trackingsystem must be established ? Road Dust: “necessary and appropriate emissions management strategies” must be implementedPresents:/slides/ralph/RPO Modeling apr2302.pptProposed Procedures for Projecting Visibility Improvements/Significance Calculations? Based on: – Recommendations from the WRAP Mobile Sources Forum Draft June 10, 2019 document – EPA’s Draft Guidance for showing visibility progress as part of the RHR (several documents) – Availability of visibility measurements and modeling results? 2019 Baseline Measurements and Estimates ? 2018 Projected Estimates– Discussions among WRAP participantsPresents:/slides/ralph/RPO Modeling apr2302.ppt? Apply to all Mobile Source or Road DustWRAP Mobile Source Forum (06/10/02) Proposed Cumulative “Significance” Testemissions in the 9 transport states– Significance Metric = Percent change in extinctionover a clean natural background for worst days, ?Bext (~ ? dv/10) – If ? Bext < 10% (? dv < 1):? ? Bext > 5% threshold is used for individual urbanarea or state/reservation.– If ? Bext ?10% (? dv ? 1):? ? Bext > 1% threshold is used, unless region is foundto be in the lowest 20% of contributionsPresents:/slides/ralph/RPO Modeling apr2302.pptEPA Draft Guidance for Showing Progress as part of the Regional Haze Rule? Progress based on changes in extinction for the mean of the Worst 20% (W20) and Best 20% (B20) observed visibility days? Modeling results are used in a relative basis using Relative Reduction Factors (RRFs), the ratio of future-year to base-year model estimates, to scale the observed visibility – RRFs are applied on a species-by-species basis – RRFs are estimated for each Class I areaPresents:/slides/ralph/RPO Modeling apr2302.pptAvailability of WRAP Modeling Results? 2019 Base Case and 2018 Base Case and EmissionControl Scenari

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